Predictions Currency of Brunei Dollar Using Regime Switching Model Before and After Pandemic of COVID-19 in Indonesia

Teguh Ammar Taqiyyuddin; Achmad Bachrudin; Adeline Vinda Septiani; Irlandia Ginanjar

UNS Conference Portal, IndoMS International Conference on Mathematics and Its Application (IICMA 2021)

Teguh Ammar Taqiyyuddin, Achmad Bachrudin, Adeline Vinda Septiani, Irlandia Ginanjar

Last modified: 2021-11-19

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to predict on the currency of Brunei Dollar using the regime switching model before and after pandemic of COVID-19 in Indonesia. The pandemic COVID-19 has impacted all of the economics sectors significantly, including volatility of both currencies toward rupiah value that tend higher before the occurrence of the pandemic, and it looks having two patterns differently. Analysing the pattern can be used the regime switching model. The currency values of Brunei Dollar are daily collected from Bank Indonesia. The prediction performant result is measured by MAPE.