UNS Conference Portal, IndoMS International Conference on Mathematics and Its Application (IICMA 2021)

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Hybrid ARIMAX-FFNN-EGARCH Model in Forecasting Cash Outflow and Inflow
Marieta Monica, Agus Suharsono, Jerry Dwi Trijoyo Purnomo

Last modified: 2021-11-19

Abstract


In everyday life, the economy cannot be separated from the need for money. Related to this, it is necessary to plan for printing money and the composition of the money to be printed over the next year by Bank Indonesia. Forecasting cash outflows and inflows can be used to estimate people's money needs. In general, time series data problems are often encountered which have a linear relationship. However, there are also time series data with non-linear patterns, especially in the economic field. Certain events or the occurrence of shocks cause non-linear patterns and volatility in the data. This study aims to predict the cash outflow and inflow in the Kediri City using the hybrid ARIMAX-FFNN-EGARCH model. The model is expected to be able to capture non-linear patterns, non-constant volatility, and pay attention to the effects of calendar variations as exogenous variables so that the forecasting results are accurate and in accordance with the actual data patterns. The effect of calendar variations using Eid al-Fitr, because most of the religion in Indonesia is Islam. The results obtained are the influence of the effect of calendar variations during the month of the holiday and before the Eid al-Fitr in cash flow out and into forecasting.