UNS Conference Portal, IndoMS International Conference on Mathematics and Its Application (IICMA 2021)

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Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia Using SEIR Model
Rona Noor Maimunah Tsary, Respatiwulan -, Irwan Susanto

Last modified: 2021-11-19


Infectious disease, caused by viruses, bacteria, parasites, or other microorganisms, is a disease that is able to transmit from one person to another. It is considered as dangerous because it can causes epidemic, where the incidence of a disease increases rapidly in a population over a certain period incubation. Therefore, it is important to control the spread of the disease by knowing the pattern of the spread of the disease. The change in the number of infected individuals is a stochastic process because it can be viewed as a random event based on time. The Susceptible Exposed Infecred Recovered (SEIR) model is a mathematical model in which every individual who has recovered from infection has permanent immunity and considers incubation period. The purpose of this study is to reconstruct and apply simulation models based on existing research. The conclusion obtained from the simulation results is if the parameter value of the transmission contact rate is greater than the cure rate, the spread rate of COVID-19 will be faster thus more individuals are infected. Applying this SEIR model can provide an overview to identify the spread pattern of COVID-19.