UNS Conference Portal, IndoMS International Conference on Mathematics and Its Application (IICMA 2021)

Font Size: 
Comparison of Box Jenkins and Autoregressive High Order Fuzzy on Average Air Humidity Forecasting at I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport
Alfien Diva Kayyisa, Winita Sulandari, Isnandar Slamet

Last modified: 2021-11-19


I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport is one of the third busiest airports in Indonesia. A study about the air pressure and temperature is a special concern for flight safety, especially during the phase when the aircraft will take off and landing. In the future for aviation security and safety, forecasting is necessary. One of the main things related to air temperature is air humidity. This study aims to modeling the air humidity data at I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport with Box Jenkins and AR high order fuzzy methods and then comparing the result for final forecasting. A significant Box Jenkins model is used for AR high order fuzzy orders. A better model is based on the accuracy from the smallest Mean Square Error (MSE) value between the results of Box Jenkins and AR high order fuzzy. The stages of this research are forecasting with Box Jenkins methods, AR high order fuzzy method, and forecast accuracy results comparation based on the highest accuracy value. As a result, the Box Jenkins method is more suitable with the AR(2) model, which based on the output of the smallest MSE, that is 13,23 compared to the MSE value of the AR high order fuzzy which is 13,45. These can be used as consideration for making policies and decisions in predicting daily humidity for each meteorological and climatological station based on the results of existing air humidity forecasting.