UNS Conference Portal, IndoMS International Conference on Mathematics and Its Application (IICMA 2021)

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Application of Factors Analysis and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) to Determine Expected Return of Sharia Stocks In Indonesia
Seftina Diyah Miasary

Last modified: 2021-11-19

Abstract


Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is a pricing model that can be used to determine the expected return of a security. APT is based on the assumption that the expected return is affected by more than one factor. Risk in APT is the sensitivity of macroeconomic factors to return which will affect the expected return of securities. This study uses ten stocks that are consistently listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) during the period 2015 to 2021. Furthermore, the macroeconomic factors applied in the APT model are seven macroeconomic factors that have been proven to have a significant influence on Islamic stock returns, there are SBI rate, inflation rate, JISDOR exchange rate, money supply, Industrial Production Index (IPI), world oil prices and world gold prices. Two APT models are applied to obtain the sensitivity value of sharia stock returns to macroeconomic factors and the expected return of sharia stocks. The sensitivity value is obtained by regressing the time series data between Islamic stock returns and the suprise of seven macroeconomic factors. Furthermore, the expected return can be determined by regressing the cross-section data between risk-free stock returns (Rf), the sensitivity value (b) of each stock return with the macroeconomic factors and the value of the risk premium. The expected value obtained from the APT model applied to sharia stocks, provides information that ADRO, INCO and UNTR stocks are overvalued stocks while AKRA, ICBP, INDF, KLBF, TLKM, UNVR and WIKA stocks are undervalued stocks